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In anticipation of efficacy results for HVTN 702, we modeled time-dependent vaccine efficacy based on results from statistical models [28] for RV144 study outcomes using a point-estimate of 58% shortly after the month 6 vaccination, and cumulative efficacy of 31.2% over 42 months. We adjusted the parameters of the efficacy function such that the cumulative vaccine efficacy over 24 months after the first dose is 50% (corresponding to the goal set by the P5) and obtained values ai = 0:08; bi = 0:34; ω = 0:065 and d = 0:1.
Glenda Model Set 059
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